Global Warming

"The overwhelming balance of evidence and scientific opinion is that it is no longer a theory, but a fact, that global warming is for real. The World's Scientists believe that if we don't cut our emissions of greenhouse gases, we will disrupt the global climate."

--President Bill Clinton, October 6, at White House Conference on global warming.

International delegates attended a negotiating session on a climate change agreement in Bonn from October 20 to October 31. None of the key issues were resolved, due primarily to the insistence by the U.S. on adapting higher levels of greenhouse gas emissions. Clinton will be going to a conference in Kyoto, Japan, December 1-10, but the outlook for any agreement looks real slim.

The U.S., with less than 4% of the world's population, produces 25% of the gases that trap heat in the atmosphere, threatening widespread climate change. And why isn't Bill willing to commit to realistic emissions? According to the New York Times: "the world's economic and political systems cannot depart from business as usual rapidly enough." And so Bill, defender of the status quo corporations-rule method of government has backpedaled on earlier promises to lower greenhouse gas emissions.

Over 2,600 scientists have signed a letter saying global climate change is a fact that we need to deal with immediately or face catastrophic consequences. A panel of the world's 2,000 leading climate scientists, who report to the United Nations, concluded at the end of 1995--two years ago--that the planet is heating very rapidly. The statistics were rather staggering:

The 10 hottest years in recorded history have occurred since 1980. The planet is heating at a faster rate than anytime in the last 10,000 years. The early stages of global warming have already begun: altered rainfall patterns, much more severe precipitation events, more floods, more droughts, rising sea levels and so forth. In parts of southern Europe a desert is spreading through portions of Portugal, Spain, Italy and Greece. Because of the build-up of atmospheric CO2, spring is now arriving a week earlier in the Northern Hemisphere than it did 20 years ago.

Infectious diseases are spreading. Insects are now able to survive at altitudes and latitudes that were only a short time ago too cold to support their survival. As a result they are spreading yellow fever, dengue and malaria to populations that have never previously experienced them.

Whole populations of fish, insects and birds are migrating north to seek stable temperatures. In the last three years three ice shelves have broken off of Antarctica as warming has been detected in the deep waters of the oceans around Antarctica. 73% of the glacial areas at Glacier National Park in Montana have been lost since 1850.

The rate of change of our climate vastly exceeds the rate at which ecosystems can adapt. The panel of UN scientists said that most of our ecosystems can adapt to a change of about one degree Celsius per century, but we're looking at a change of three to four degrees Celsius in the next century unless we do something very rapidly to limit our greenhouse emissions.

So why isn't the problem getting fixed? Maybe it's because there aren't enough people screaming loudly enough. Various governments are talking about emission reductions of 5-10%, and so forth yet science tells us we must cut our emissions by 60-70% if we are to restore the atmosphere to a hospitable state. The European Union has vowed to stick to its proposal for a 15% reduction in emissions of three greenhouse gases by 2010. The Japanese proposal is for a 5% reduction below 1990 levels by the year 2010. The US has proposed limiting emissions to 1990 levels as a phased in program from 2008 to 2012.

In a treaty signed in 1992, by 160 nations, the U.S. and other industrial countries pledged to reduce their emissions of such gases to 1990's levels by 2000. But U.S. emissions were 7.4% above 1990 levels in 1996, and are expected to be 13% higher than 1990 levels in the year 2000.

Ross Gelbspan, author of "The Heat Is On: The High Stakes Battle Over Earth's Threatened Climate," has a far more drastic solution: Phase out fossil fuel burning in 10 years, and replace it with climate-friendly renewable energy. That step is well within our means. And not only could renewable energy provide all the services we gain today from fossil fuels, Gelbspan says--it would "create a huge economic boom. In very short order you would see the renewable energy industry eclipse high tech as the central driving engine of growth of the global economy."

If you feel like sending President Clinton a message, he will be in Seattle on Saturday, November 22nd. He will be attending a $250 a plate fundraiser for the Democratic Party. To join others to greet Bill, call Northwest Forest Action Group at 632-2954.

Most of the Information for this article was obtained from an interview conducted by Patrick Maza with Ross Gelbspan. Stump Talk is put together every other week by a few ecofreaks. If you want to help out, contact Northwest Forest Action Group at 632-2954.