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The Next Banking Crisis
by Maria Tomchick
"Everyone is always shouting, 'Quickly, quickly, quickly. In my opinion,
you should move quickly only when you need to go to the toilet."--Alexander
Bakaev, head of the Russian Finance Ministry's Department of Accounting
Methodology.
It took a while for the details to emerge, but several banks and brokerage
houses have lost big in the recent collapse in Russia and the ensuing panic
in Latin American stock markets.
The first bank to come forward and report its losses was the Republic Bank
of New York, which $10-20 million when the Russian government defaulted on
$43 billion in short-term debt last month. This was a shock to other
bankers, because Republic Bank of New York is only the 27th largest bank in
the U.S.--relatively small--and well-known for its "conservative" lending
practices (which says a lot about how unstable the bigger banks are).
Within the past two weeks, larger American banks began to issue their
statements. Chase Manhattan and Citicorp both lost about $200 million
each. Bankers Trust took a heavy loss, too, but refused to say how
much.
Brokerage firms and investment companies dropped a load, too. Merrill Lynch
and Morgan Stanley Dean Witter, the two largest securities firms in the
world, posted losses related to Russia and volatile markets in Venezuela,
Brazil, Colombia, and Argentina. Merrill Lynch's loss is $135 million. The
other losers were: Travelers Group (Salomon Smith Barney), Lehman Bros, and
Donaldson Jufkin & Jenrette--a who's who of Wall Street.
But the bad times are just beginning. U.S. banks and securities firms only
had small amounts invested in Russian markets compared to what they own in
Latin American debt and securities. The six "money-center" banks--Chase,
Citicorp, BankAmerica, JP Morgan, Bankers Trust, and First
Chicago--together own about $61.9 billion in Latin American
investments, which far surpasses anything they owned in Russia or the whole
of Asia. For example, Citicorp's exposure to Latin America is $15.5
billion, versus a mere $400 million it owned of Russian investments (now
mostly worthless). Chase Manhattan's exposure to just one
country--Brazil--is about $3.5 billion.
Notably, Moody's Investor's Service, which rates the credit-worthiness of
corporate and government debt, downgraded Brazil's debt only a week ago--a
sign that Brazil's ability to pay is slipping.
Another valuable service that Moody's performs is its rating of the world's
banks. Each nation's banking sector is assigned a rating according to its
ability to pay its own debts and depositors without needing the World Bank,
IMF, or taxpayers to bail them out. The ratings for specific banks are
grouped together by nation and an average score is assigned to each
country. This only makes sense for smaller countries with smaller banks,
because the largest banks tend to be truly multinational, but the scores
are interesting anyway. They show how truly dismal the global markets
really are.
The scale is a simple one, like a high school report-card, and it's
laughably restrained in how it describes each rating: "A" banks have
"exceptional financial strength," "B" banks are "strong," "C" banks are
merely "good," "D" banks have only "adequate financial strength" (meaning
that they're just teetering on the edge of collapse), and "E" banks have
"very weak intrinsic financial strength"--in other words, they "already
receive outside support or are likely to need it."
A glance at Moody's list immediately shows that no nation's banks rate an A
(so much for the free markets' mythical ability to promote excellence).
Only three nations rate a B: The Netherlands, Switzerland, and tiny
Liechtenstein. A few other nations can claim to be almost "strong": Spain,
Belgium, Canada, Singapore, and Luxembourg. But then the list drops down to
the realm of C+ nations--those that are just barely above mediocre: the
U.K., Sweden, Germany, and the good ol' USA.
Unfortunately for U.S. banks, most Latin American nations rank very low on
the list. Colombia and Peru hover in the D+ range; Brazil, Venezuela,
Panama, Argentina, and Ecuador lurk in the mid to low D range.
Interestingly, the Mexican banking system, still heavily in debt to U.S.
banks, is fifth from the bottom--way behind Russia (D) and just ahead of
South Korea, Thailand, Pakistan, and Indonesia (E). The list, of course,
leaves off F nations and neglects to define what an F would mean, but we
can guess which countries would qualify and why (i.e., Cuba, Libya, Iraq,
Nicaragua, Nigeria, Angola ... indeed, most of Africa).
Our analysis of Moody's ratings of world banks only confirms what we
already know: that the wealthy feed on the poor. But, by the same token,
the wealthy rely on the poor to provide them a continuous profit--when that
begins to collapse, the rich go down, too.
So keep all of this in mind when you read or hear pundits say that the
Russian collapse doesn't mean anything, that it was relatively small, and
it won't have any impact on the U.S. economy. In reality, it's just another
domino in a line that stretches around the globe.
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