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The Gangster Economy
by Maria Tomchick
Way back in 1987, during our last recession, the Fed took steps to bring
the U.S. economy out of the doldrums. Those steps led directly to the
current global recession.
Credit was "liberalized," meaning that banks could lower their standards
for who they loaned money to: businesses, foreign governments, brokerage
firms, and other banks. High risk projects and investments entered the
picture, and many banks poured money into the "tiger economies" of Asia and
emerging markets in Latin America, Russia and Eastern Europe. Today, the
crisis in Russia is a good example of just how risky those investments
were.
In the early 1990s, during Boris Yeltsin's first term in office, he
privatized a large number of state-owned industries: mining concerns, oil
and natural gas companies, utilities, the beverage alcohol industry, etc.
These companies were bought up by the only folks in the former Soviet
Republics who had money and were considered "reliable" credit risks:
ex-Communist party members and apparatchiks. These were the same folks who
managed state firms during the Soviet era--or "mismanaged," since most
managers of state-run companies drained cash out of them to maintain their
dachas, private cars, and tickets to the Bolshoi. Well-schooled in
corruption, these former apparatchiks saw the newly deregulated Russian
economy as a profiteering free-for-all, and naturally snapped up
controlling interests in privatized companies at bargain prices.
Before the Russian government offered these assets for sale, they stripped
bad loans off the books and assumed the debt burden of these companies.
They privatized the assets, but nationalized the debts. These old debts
from the Soviet era make up a large part of the current foreign debt load
weighing down the Russian government.
After buying controlling interests in these assets with loans from Russian
banks, the apparatchiks went on to borrow as much cash as they could from
western banks (mostly German and Swiss) in order to "expand" the
businesses. This was supposed to fuel Russian economic growth, provide jobs
for workers laid off from state industries, and get the Russian stock
market off to a nice start. Instead of putting the cash into expanding the
companies, however, Russian entrepreneurs invested it in risky
developments, the Russian stock market, derivatives, and foreign
investments. Much of the cash was funneled into accounts in off-shore banks
in the Middle East and the Carribean. Having learned during the Soviet era
how to keep two sets of books--the real ones and the ones for the state
auditors--these managers were able to hide the theft for a long time. But,
as the Asian financial crisis closed in, commodity prices fell, the ranks
of unemployed workers swelled, and it became obvious that the money had
disappeared: employees had not been paid for a long time. Strikes ensued,
factories ceased producing goods for want of raw materials, miners left the
mines, oil workers walked off the job, and the economy ground to a halt.
The crisis hit home.
Earlier this year, the Russian government accepted a $22 billion bailout
package from the IMF. The first installment was paid out in July but,
instead of being used to cover Russia's short term debt payments, the
government used it to prop up the ruble just long enough for Russian
entrepreneurs to get their cash out of the country. The first installment
of the bailout money went directly into the pockets of corrupt businessmen,
and now the IMF has refused to give the Russian government the second
installment until it outlines a clear plan for the economy that adheres to
strict IMF doctrine. Of course, it was IMF-style privatizations that
brought on the crisis in the first place.
The new Russian Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov has an impossible task. On
one side is a population of people who can't afford to buy food, who are
just getting by on home-grown vegetables and barter. With inflation that
will top out at around 300 percent by the end of this year, it's going to
be the roughest winter in Russia in decades. Right now, the population is
demanding two things: that the government pay their back salaries no matter
what it takes, and that Yeltsin and Co. abandon all IMF economic "reform"
policies. On the other side is the IMF and that desperately-needed second
installment that Russia has to have in order to pay its workers and cover
its long-term debt payments. Stuck between a rock and a hard place, the
Yeltsin government is near collapse. In the meantime, regional governors
are taking matters into their own hands and instituting economic policies
of their own. It's only a matter of time before one of these governors
decides he could do a better job at running the country; Alexander Lebed,
governor of Siberia, has already demanded that Yeltsin resign.
It's important to understand that this scenario is not unique to Russia.
Gangster-style economics goes hand-in-hand with capitalism all over the
globe. South Korea has its chaebols (huge family-owned corporations) that
have survived on political nepotism and graft. The Suharto family not only
ran Indonesia, but they also commandeered huge chunks of government funds
to start whatever business projects they wanted. Japan, widely considered
the economic engine and main stabilizing force of the region, has been
rocked by a long string of banking, industrial, and political scandals
involving payoffs, kick-backs, and bribery. Favoritism, corruption, theft,
and welfare for the rich are all main characteristics of unregulated global
capitalism.
While the Russian collapse has proved that it's not simply an "Asian"
phenomenon, as racist western economists have claimed over the past year,
one recent development proves that the U.S. is also part of the global
gangster economy. Last Wednesday, top officials of 16 of the world's
largest banks and brokerage firms spent more than $3.5 billion to shore up
a single U.S. mutual fund. The Long-Term Capital Management Fund--a "hedge"
fund--had invested in $90 billion worth of bond-based derivatives that are
now mostly worthless. The fund only had about $2.3 billion in real assets
to back up those ethereal investments. Essentially, in a scramble to save
the economies of Europe and the U.S., 16 banks bought up large portions of
nothing.
To top it all off, this hedge fund is not unique, nor is it some esoteric
type of investment run by marginal characters. Investors in the fund
include major banks, brokerage firms, and wealthy investors. The fund
itself was formed and managed by three former Salomon Brothers employees
and two Nobel-prize winning economists, Robert H. Merton and Myron S.
Scholes. In short, it's a black hole that sits squarely in the center of
the western financial system. If it or a similar entity goes down, then the
crisis will hit home here.
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