Two countries, "Hindu" India and "Islamic" Pakistan, formed from the dissolution of Britain's Colonial India, have been more or less at odds since their simultaneous creation in August 1947. They have been at war three times, twice over the disputed territory of Kashmir (1947 & 1965), and once during the Pakistani civil war that transformed what was then East Pakistan into today's Bangladesh (1971).

While currently not technically at war, they shell and shoot at each other continuously across the disputed Kashmir "Line of Control" whenever the Himalayan weather permits.

India's air strikes on guerrilla positions in Kashmir are a disturbing escalation of violence in the region. Considering both countries conducted nuclear tests just one year ago, things are anxious in South Asia.

India says it bombed guerrillas inside India's part of Kashmir--Afghan guerrillas financed and directed, it says, by Pakistan. Pakistan said the initial air strikes took place in Pakistani territory--confirmed Indian aggression, thwarted only by Pakistan's Bomb. As for these Afghan mercenaries, Pakistan's foreign Minister says: "No one knows where they come from or who they are." But if these mystery guerrillas are inside Pakistan's territory, in a region full of Pakistan military, someone in Pakistan must know where they come from. If indeed they are inside India, and outside Pakistan's purview, then India was unlikely to be bombing them inside Pakistan. In the U.S., thinly veiled conventional wisdom asserts that they are indigenous Kashmiri guerrillas, indignant to the point of climbing up a glacier with tons of equipment, where they can harass military vehicles on the border highway. That Pakistan is the U.S. strategic partner of choice in the immediate area, may or may not influence this conclusion.

When the British Raj was partitioned in 1947, the mountainous region of Kashmir became an item of immediate and persistent contention between the two sides. The Kashmir Raj, courted by both countries, preferred independence. In 1947 an invasion from Pakistan pushed Kashmir into joining India, and the first war over Kashmir began. Split between the two countries by a series of UN-supervised negotiations, the legendary paradise of Kashmir has become ground zero. A rugged and diverse area, Kashmir lies at the intersection of Central Asia, India, and the Tibetan plateau. Culturally, the majority of the population are Islamic, with concentrations of Hindus and Buddhists.

In 1989, a Muslim-based Kashmiri independence movement began on the Indian side of the Line of Control, a response to the Indian government's neglect and corruption. Numerous armed groups arose. Some of these sought and received aid from Pakistan. Some groups began calling not for independence, but for all of Kashmir to join Pakistan (what Pakistan considers to be the "unfinished business of partition"). This caused something of a split in the insurgency. As time wore on, the Pakistan-backed insurgents gained strength, while the true independence movement waned.

It waned to the point where, to hear India tell it, Pakistan is now forced to import Mujahadeen terrorists from Afghanistan, and infiltrate them into India. Whoever they are, they carry out numerous attacks on military and civilians every year.

Following the U.S. missile strikes on Afghanistan last year, India's press reiterated that they had complained of Afghani terrorism for years without provoking any interest from the West.

Instead, following India's and Pakistan's rival nuclear tests last year, President Clinton offered up a Kashmir solution so devoid of sense as to defy analysis. Clinton declared that China, as the leading power in the region, should mediate the Kashmir dispute. This suggestion seems to have been designed specifically to alienate India. Or perhaps kiss up to China for no particular reason. Maybe the President was distracted by something else.

India developed nuclear weapons, not against Pakistan, as ubiquitously reported, but to counter the nuclear power of its uneasy neighbor, China. China and India have a long-disputed border. They have fought twice. In 1962, China invaded and seized a hefty chunk of what was, until then, part of India-controlled Kashmir. India has more troops facing off with China than with Pakistan. In a little deeper twist, Pakistan ceded a bit of its portion of Kashmir to its close ally, China. A worse suggestion for mediator could not have been found in the entire world. It appears from the Indian press, that India was practically begging for the U.S. itself to mediate the conflict. Unfortunately, at the time, the crises had not assumed drastic enough proportions to warrant U.S. interest.

As could be expected, India refused Clinton's proposal. Instead, the leaders of the two countries started talking on their own. Last February, India's Prime Minister, Atal Behari Vajpayee took a bus trip across the border into Pakistan, where he met Pakistan's leader, Nawaz Sharif. They shook hands. As a result of the meeting, regular bus service was instituted between Delhi, India, and Lahore, Pakistan--an official recognition of the close economic and social ties between the two countries.

Kashmir itself may not be indicative of true Pakistan-India relations. Many western experts agree with India that the guerrillas are not Kashmiri freedom fighters, but imported Mujahadeen. They may even be controlled by one of Pakistan's intelligence agencies. "I don't think Pakistani forces are all under unified control." said one American expert. "This may have been done without the knowledge of Nawaz Sharif." The Pakistani intelligence agencies have come under increasing influence by militant factions who have been unsuccessful in recent elections.

This seems suspiciously familiar--more so considering the close ties between the U.S. and Pakistani intelligence agencies. Sharif may not know who these guerrillas are and where they come from, but somebody at CIA headquarters probably does. It may be time to tell the president.