Winner Take All Politics Feeds Militarization
by Steven Hill
Throughout the many months leading up to war, most Americans remained
unconvinced that war was the right course, particularly without a United
Nations endorsement. Yet Congress seemingly did not reflect the nation's
mood. There were few voices of congressional opposition, even among
Democratic Party leaders, despite polls showing that Democratic voters were
opposed to war by nearly 2 to 1.
The reasons for this are linked to the most fundamental aspects of our
winner-take-all elections. Under the sway of pollsters, consultants, and
strategists, Democratic leaders typically bend over backwards not to appear
weak on defense. They have made the calculation that the voters who always
vote for them will continue to do so, no matter what their stands on Iraq
or Middle East policy, because those voters are not about to vote for
Republicans. So these liberal and progressive voters mostly can be
ignored.
Instead, Democrats target their positions in such a way as to attract more
conservative swing voters and independents, those undecided voters that
determine winners in close races. Polls show this group has been evenly
split over the question of war.
This is a calculated gambit by the Democratic Party leadership. Some of
the Democratic House members would like to be more outspoken against the
war, but they don't dare buck their leadership. And without a third party
in the Congress like a Green Party that is unequivocally against the war,
most debate and dialogue came to a standstill long ago.
Consequently, neither Congress nor the president was pressured to reveal
how much the Iraqi invasion would cost, even though common sense said it
would be fed by cutting other needed programs, including the chances for
national health care, prescription drug benefits, and even adequate funding
for homeland security.
But this is nothing new. Winner-take-all calculations always have produced
bloated military budgets full of pork barrel waste and bipartisan
brinkmanship. The story of the October 1999 military appropriations
illustrates some of the worst dynamics resulting from our winner-take-all
system.
In the spring of 1998, the conventional wisdom in Washington was that the
military budget would remain steady at about $270 billion per year through
2002, as called for in the 1997 balanced budget agreement. But then came
the impeachment attack in the summer. By the fall of 1998, key Republican
hawks in Congress and the Joint Chiefs of Staff decided that a president
facing impeachment charges was ripe to be shaken down for more military
spending. They presented Clinton with their demands, and to save his
presidency Clinton took steps to placate this powerful military
constituency.
Clinton pledged a $1.1 billion increase for "military readiness," but in
the inevitable horse trading needed to close the deal, Congress transformed
the increase into a $9 billion grab bag of pet pork projects. GOP Sen. John
McCain described it as "the worst pork in recent memory." The pork
included billions more for Star Wars, F-15 fighters, helicopters, and more
awarded to the home areas of Speaker Newt Gingrich, Senate Majority Leader
Trent Lott, and House Minority Leader Dick Gephardt. Successive rounds of
one-upsmanship continued into 1999, pushing the price tag beyond what the
Pentagon even had requested.
Careful analysis reveals how winner-take-all incentives drove this policy
debacle. First came the impeachment attack -- driven by Republicans in the
House selected by their leadership because they represented heavily
partisan districts where reelection was assured. Second, the partisan
impeachment attack created an opening for the military and congressional
hawks to shake down a weakened president. Once the pigskin was put into
play, successive rounds of bipartisan brinkmanship upped the ante -- and
the price tag -- creating a pork barrel feeding frenzy.
Third, just like now with the Iraqi war, Clinton and the Democrats believed
that, as the 2000 election year approached, their pro-military positioning
helped them with the more conservative swing voters and insulated them from
the charge of being "soft on defense."
The real losers were the American taxpayer and those desiring a peacetime
economy. The military budget passed in October 1999 was the largest
increase since the Reagan era, even though it already was more than twice
that of the combined military budgets of every conceivable adversary.
Even before September 11, our winner-take-all system offered powerful
incentives for pork barrel gluttony, political positioning, courting of
swing voters, and partisan pit bull attacks that have ensured that the
militarization of the federal budget has rolled along as bipartisan policy.
Steven Hill is senior analyst for the Center for Voting and Democracy
(www.fairvote.org) and author of "Fixing Elections: The Failure of
America's Winner Take All Politics" (Routledge Press,
www.FixingElections.com)
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