At its meeting of April 22, the friendly and--let's not forget--ultra-competent new regime now running Sound Transit finally came to an agreement, sort of, on a route north from downtown, some of it. The rest is scheduled to be worked out behind closed doors sometime between now and May's meeting. In the interim, the announcement was a rare glimpse behind the We've Really Got Our Act Together Now facade of Sound Transit's troubled light rail project. The reality is that there's still plenty for the public to be concerned about.

The first concern, as always, is process. The April meeting solidified the rail line's route north from downtown to the University District, including stops at First Hill, Capitol Hill (on Broadway near SCCC), Husky Stadium, and 45th & Brooklyn NE. The process leading to selection of those four stops--at least two of which have details remaining as to the exact siting--has been enough to alienate community groups, especially on Capitol Hill, who don't feel like Joni Earl and staff are taking their concerns into account.

But beyond Seattle's usual process squabbles, Sound Transit is threatening to land its light rail project in trouble, again, over the same problems that so alienated the public in its first years: money and relevance.

Based on these four stops, it's hard to imagine nearly enough people riding light rail to justify the project's enormous construction hassles and costs. No rising above it all and scenic views here--the trains will tunnel, deeply, not seeing daylight between the Convention Center and somewhere north of the U-District. The stations will be deep, too--reachable by elevator for the full aesthetically claustrophobic transit experience.

Taking this train will require some determination. And seeing as how the route mirrors the two most heavily traveled bus routes in the city--the #7 and #43--few people will be getting out of their cars to take this train. More than likely, they'll switch from existing public transit, raising the question, all over again, of how effective a use of money this route is. Especially as it won't serve either North Capitol Hill or the bulk of the UW campus--they'll both be a brisk walk, and elevator ride, from the nearest train.

Ah, the money. Sound Transit also unveiled its cost estimate for the north extension: $2.5 billion, which sounds like a lot until you consider that the south line is costing a full $2 billion and it's not tunneling, expensively, deep under Capitol Hill and the Montlake Cut. Want a better analogy? The current proposal to replace the aging Alaskan Way viaduct imagines tunneling beneath 1.5 miles of waterfront--a shorter distance than ST's north line proposes. The cost is already set at $6 billion.

Factor in the additional costs for three stations in dense neighborhoods, and it's very easy to imagine that $2.5 billion inexorably rising, doubling, even tripling in coming years, just as the original ballooning cost estimates soured the public on Sound Transit in the late '90s.

In fact, cost overruns on this line are so easy to imagine that its hard to believe Sound Transit is taking its own numbers seriously. They'd better. The public's current relative absolution of ST for its past troubles could dissolve all too easily. Just look at the stunning number of additional high-ticket transportation projects that are either already in the works locally, or need to be. The Alaskan Way viaduct, a new 520 bridge, I-405's expansion, the monorail's Green Line, and reconstruction of I-5 all through Seattle are each, by themselves, projects that could stretch a region's finances and cause commuting nightmares during construction. Put five or six of them together, and the public is likely to have little patience for any of the projects playing fast and loose with cost estimates or completion dates. Especially when the agency involved began its life doing exactly that.

As you read this, Sound Transit's planners and board members are working behind the scenes to reach consensus on both details of the downtown-University District stretch (e.g., which side of NE 45th St. to place the Brooklyn station), and a plan to extend the line to Northgate. Presumably, the public will be given the final plan at Sound Transit's May meeting. That meeting will establish a baseline--in siting details, cost estimates, and timeline--that the public will measure progress against for years.

So far, Sound Transit seems to be badly lowballing a major public transit project. With all the transportation projects our region faces, we need honest accounting. The last thing we need is yet another instance of a transit agency playing bait and switch. Sound Transit has a couple of weeks to get it right.