THINK IT FORWARD

I just wanted to give you a heads up on a new forward thinking organization we've created in Seattle called 2045 Seattle. Check us out at http://2045seattle.org.The first issue we're tackling is the monorail, but we're hoping to build from there after we win that one.

Christian Gloddy, via e-mail

WHAT, NO OIL? HOW'D THAT HAPPEN?

As oil prices continue to surge, I thought ETS! readers ought to be aware of the new book by Matthew Simmons, Twilight in the Desert: the Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy. Simmons is no environmental radical: he is CEO of a large energy investment and research company, and occasional advisor to President Bush.

After an extensive technical review of Saudi oil production, Simmons believes that the massive Saudi oil fields are past their point of peak production and risking collapse. That would mean that the world will not be able to fuel the ever-increasing global oil thirst. As demand exceeds supply, prices will continue to escalate and shortages will force us to seek alternatives to our current oil-based way of life.

Simmons goes further in an August 6th online interview at www.financialsense.com. He predicts an energy crunch this coming winter whereby oil prices could easily go up five to ten-fold. Needless to say, if that happens we will be unprepared and in deep trouble.

Of course, other oil analysts, such as Cambridge Energy Research Associates' Daniel Yergen, continue to believe Saudi Arabia can continue to increase supply (by as much as by 16 million barrels/day by 2010). So who do we believe? At the very least, the debate between the oil optimists and pessimists is something we should be following closely.

But a growing number of oil experts (such as the Association for the Study of Peak Oil at www.peakoil.net ) are predicting global maximum conventional oil production before 2010. In fact, even an ExxonMobil report predicts OPEC oil peaking in five years (Financial Times, Aug. 4th). That still does not give us much time to prepare for the coming shortages.

Can we rise to the monumental challenges ahead? Simmons thinks we can. But it will involve Herculean measures, such as a massive energy R&D program. The railroad network will have to be reinvented to replace the trucking industry. Globalization will be curtailed in favor of local production and consumption. War and famine will only be averted by a world oil depletion protocol that distributes the remaining 50% of (mostly low quality) oil fairly.

We ought to be using this time to educate our leaders and ourselves. The coming crises will test our ability to think clearly, work together and find sustainable, compassionate solutions. The next meeting of the Seattle Peak Oil Awareness group is on Thursday, September 1st at 7pm. Info at http://oilawareness.meetup.com/78/

Colin Wright, Seattle

Solar Powered Seattle

Seattle can indeed be almost entirely solar-powered within a few years. The technology is there. Solar photovoltaics can make DC electrical power. Once converted to AC, it can be sold back to the electric utility. Already Seattle City Light has lots of electric hot water heaters which could be retrofited with solar preheaters. Granted solar energy is not very available in the winter, but wind energy is much more windy in the winter. Solar energy is very available in the summer....exactly when hydrodams have little electricity. We could float solar photovoltaics on the lake behind Seattle City Light's dam, making electricity for the grid exactly when dams have little water. By floating solar cells on the lake it allows the dam to mimic the natural flow of the river, allowing for lower lake levels, and more water for fish ladders. The shading of the floating PVs creates shade for the fish....a solar solution to hydrodams and fish! Right now Seattle has close to 300,000 residences and 20,000 businesses...each with a hot water heater. These hot water tanks each can be retrofited with solar hot water heating. Microwind urban-friendly turbines could provide micropower for micro-room heaters in the winter. The furnance senses the heat, and turns off! Saving utility bills. Wind turbines work well in winter storms, exactly when there are blackouts. As the price of gasoline increases I predict transportation vehicles will be increasingly natural gas or electric powered.

Cost! Solar powering Seattle is going to be lower cost than building a big coal plant in Montana, or purchasing natural gas from Texas...it means local employment. We'll employ people in Seattle to build power systems in Seattle...not Texas or Montana. What is the hang up? Squarely, the local Venture Capitalist just don't like us. They are more interested in nuclear power reactors to Mars. Having people make their 'own energy' just does not seem worthy of investment. Right now we need more local manufacture of solar and other renewable energy products. Got a modest proposal to get the attention of the VCers...put in 'more you use, more you pay electric rates'. Presently Seattle City Light has a three tier structure...even the rich get a small portion of 'cheap hydro power'. The megahome owners have no incentive to reduce power consumption, let alone install a solar energy collector. If we went to a ten tier rate structure, instead of the present three tier...it will get the attention of the entire Seattle Golf Club! When the rich find energy isn't 'cheap' then just maybe they might decide to capitlize local manufacturing...so we make solar devices in Seattle, not China, Japan or England. Funny how the mainstream media never seems to utter the words...solar energy. The dirty secrete is there is enough sunlight on top of all roofs, driveways and parking lots (in cloudy Seattle!) to power the entire city.

Martin Nix, www.solarwashington.org