North Korea conducted an underground nuclear test on October 16, 2006. Iran is almost certainly plunging headlong with its own nuclear enrichment program. These two members of Bush's "axis of evil" have been developing nuclear capabilities since the 1980s, yet Bush wasted all of America's military force and international credibility attacking the weak third member of the "axis," Iraq. Iraq had no nuclear program, no weapons of mass destruction, no control over its own airspace, was under sanctions, was under international inspections, and was for all practical purposes successfully contained.

When President Clinton came into office in 1993, ten nations possessed nuclear weapons: the United States, Russia, England, France, China, Israel, South Africa, Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan. When he left office in 2001, only eight nations had nuclear weapons. Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan returned their old Soviet era nukes to Russia, and South Africa voluntarily dismantled theirs. The United States had 12,000 nuclear warheads in 1992 to Russia's 25,000. By the end of Clinton's terms, those numbers had been reduced to 11,000 and 10,000 respectively. The United States has not developed or tested any nuclear weapon since 1992. The world was a safer place then, and international security was relatively stable.

To be sure, two new nations joined the nuclear club at the end of Clinton's Presidency: India exploded a small device in 1974 but its first major test was in 1998, followed in rapid succession by Pakistan two weeks later. The Republican-controlled Congress paid no attention; they were intent only on persecuting Clinton and pandering to their own right wing fundamentalists. Bush subsequently lifted Clinton's sanctions against both countries and rewarded them with agreements and alliances. Now the two mutually hostile nations are estimated to have 205 nuclear bombs between them, and the renegade Pakistani scientist, Abdul Khan, shared his expertise with Iran, North Korea, and Libya.

What message did this send to North Korea? "Build the bomb first, then talk." North Korea began its nuclear program in 1989, when the Soviet Union collapsed. In 1993 Pyongyang threatened to withdraw from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty it had signed in 1985. Clinton sent Robert Gallucci to negotiate in spite of heavy Republican opposition. The Republicans claimed that this was rewarding North Korea for its "bad behavior." Clinton replied that negotiation is better than brinkmanship for American security. North Korea relented. According to the terms of the Agreed Framework, the US began to supply North Korea with heavy fuel oil and two light water nuclear electrical plants. The communist regime stopped plutonium enrichment and shut down their facility at Yongbyon.

In 1994, the Republicans swept into control of Congress. They refused to ratify the Agreed Framework, and dragged their feet on the American part of the deal. Famine hit North Korea and Kim Dae Jung of South Korea launched his Sunshine Policy, for which he won the Nobel Peace Prize. Under this policy, food was supplied to the North, relatives were able to meet across the borders, and Pyongyang even opened up a free trade zone. North Korea launched a missile over the Sea of Japan in 1998, drawing sharp protests from Tokyo, but did not enrich one ounce of plutonium. The following year, Clinton sent another envoy and this time Kim Jung Il agreed to inspections and freezing of all missile tests. In 2000, Clinton even sent Secretary of State Madeleine Albright to North Korea as a sign of better recognition and easing tensions with the isolated country.

Along comes George Bush in 2001. Right after his inauguration, Bush stunned Kim Dae Jung of South Korea by declaring that he would not continue talks with the North. The Bush administration ignored North Korea, the Middle East, and Iran. Miffed, Kim Jung Il threatened to restart missile testing. Bush reluctantly agreed to talks but expanded his demands. Kim Jung Il rejected the demands and launched a missile. Two months later, Al-Qaeda crashed airliners into the World Trade Center and the Pentagon.

September 11 did many things, one of which was to reveal serious vulnerabilities in the vaunted military and intelligence capabilities of the United States. More seriously, 9-11 gave an untrained, ill-equipped cowboy and his posse a platform for playing sheriff on a world stage. Bush lost no time in doing so. In October, he launched the war against the Taliban in Afghanistan. In January, he gave his infamous "axis of evil" speech, which was received by the world as a serious military threat by an angry and vengeful America. Bush escalated his rhetoric even further with the announcement that the United States would launch preemptive strikes against any nation it deemed hostile: "You are either with us or against us."

North Korea reacted with alarm. They restarted their uranium enrichment program. Bush cut off the fuel oil supplies. They kicked out the International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors. Pyongyang requested direct talks with the United States, but Bush refused. He shut the door on North Korea and bent his entire attention on Iraq. Left to its own devices, the North Korean military concluded that to improve their defensive posture, they had to pursue their own nuclear bomb as fast as possible.

Meanwhile Bush, in his fixation to overthrow Saddam Hussein, ignored Afghanistan, Israel, Palestine, Darfur, Iran, and North Korea. He vilified allies like France and Germany who counseled restraint. His administration openly threatened Somalia, Yemen, and Iran. He pressed for a UN resolution that would allow him to invade Iraq. Failing that, he reinterpreted an existing resolution to legitimize his invasion. In 2003 Bush launched his war. The lesson was clear to the other members of the so-called axis: this man will invade your country under any sort of pretext unless you have the bomb.

Even as the Iraq war faltered and Afghanistan slipped back into warlord violence, Bush continued to raise the stakes of war. In 2004 he quietly violated the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty by authorizing the Reliable Replacement Warhead program to replace and enhance America's nuclear stockpile. In 2006 he announced his abrogation of the treaty that bans weapons in outer space and suspended the Geneva Convention for the treatment of prisoners. Bush took America over the line into what most foreign observers would call a rogue state. North Korea's rogue leadership certainly knows another rogue state when it sees one, and on October 16 gave notice to the world that it had a practical, working nuclear bomb.

Would North Korea have developed the bomb even without Bush's bluster and blundering? Probably not. Kim Jung Il is no Hitler. He is no lean and hungry dreamer thirsting for a new world order. He is more like a dissipated Goering, quite content to stay home and feed his gluttonous appetites by ruthlessly exploiting his own people. Last year he imported over $51 million worth of luxury goods from Germany alone. His extravagant tastes for movies, caviar, brandy, and exotic entertainments are legend. He shares his largess generously with his cronies in the government and military while his people starve. They maintain an absolute dictatorship through brutal physical control and complete isolation from the outside world. They are paranoid about anything that might threaten their status quo.

They are not stupid, however, and they play their cards with shrewd care. They have seen the runaway arrogance of the Bush administration and his cavalier willingness to use violence. They have concluded correctly that only the bomb will prevent Bush from invading their country. They called his bluff and the cowboy has no more cards.

North Korea's nuclear bomb is a major failure of the Bush administration and potentially the most deadly serious one. The irony is that North Korea was probably the easiest to contain of the three so-called "axis of evil" nations, because it is entirely internally focused. It has no fanatical religion or expansive territorial ambitions. It is a loony bin that will consume itself in time with no great effort from the outside.

Unfortunately, it is now a loony bin with a bomb. -Janice Van Cleve; Copyright 2006